Energy policy in the age of transactional diplomacy

When Nord Stream 2’s pipeline was sabotaged, few thought it would ever carry gas to Europe again. Yet quietly, this ‘toxic asset’ is on its way back.

In his second term, Donald Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy has focused squarely on US interests. Backchannel diplomacy has been key. This is a clandestine world beyond embassies, international institutions and thinktanks. Anything is possible and everything has a price; grand moral principles are irrelevant and laws are breached where necessary. Everything revolves around the art of the deal.

Even the unlikeliest deals count – for instance, the revival of Nord Stream, the Russian-European gas pipelines sabotaged by a group of Ukrainian citizens in September 2022. The key players in its potential restart are drawn from governments, big companies, lobbying firms and intelligence services. They are the agents of a behind-the-scenes diplomacy that often sees intermediaries use their networking skills to facilitate major agreements between multinationals or states while generating profits for themselves.

The destruction of three out of four Nord Stream pipelines was the result of a Ukrainian operation with support from Washington, London and Warsaw. It put an end to the transport of Russian gas to Germany via the Baltic. Most of the people we spoke to thought repairing the pipes was out of the question, even if the necessary resources were available. Under US and EU sanctions, the pipelines are politically toxic, especially in Germany. No one we spoke to at French energy group Engie – which stands to lose €2bn if the project is abandoned – expects its revival. The crippling of Nord Stream is a financial and industrial disaster, but European companies don’t dare raise the issue with their governments. And why would the US want to invite competition with its own liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, which have been flooding the European market at exorbitant prices since the beginning of the war in Ukraine?

But a wealth of information has been uncovered that suggests Nord Stream could resume operating under US leadership – (…)

Full article: 3 284 words.

(1) Morgane Fert Malka, Mes instructions viennent de plus haut: La vérité sur l’explosion de Nord Stream (My instructions come from higher up: the truth about the Nord Stream explosion), Stock, Paris, 2025; see also Fabian Scheidler, ‘Nord Stream: hide-and-seek deep under the Baltic sea’, Le Monde diplomatique English edition, November 2024.

(4) Morgane Fert Malka, ‘Nord Stream saga: inside the Sberbank Switzerland sale’, Intelligence Online, 31 January 2025